Alvarado Home Values
Texas
Alvarado Market Snapshot
| Active 299 listings | New 75 30 days | Closed 24 30 days | Pending 3 30 days | Supply 9.1 months | Absorption 3.3% monthly | Over List 2.8% sold above | Under List 55.7% sold below | Concessions 62% % of solds | Avg Concession $10,480 seller paid |
Source: NTREIS MLS • Excludes leases • Sep 2026
Alvarado Market Trends
Builder Boom Meets Buyer Pullback on I-35W
Alvarado sits at the southern edge of Johnson County where I-35W crosses into open ranch country between Fort Worth and Hillsboro. National builders — Bloomfield, DR Horton, Trophy Signature — have bet heavily on master-planned communities like Parks of Alvarado and Sunset Ridge, pushing new rooftops into former pastureland at a pace the town has never seen. But Alvarado is not just subdivisions. Acreage tracts, hobby farms, and lakefront cottages in Blue Water Oaks give buyers a second market entirely — one where no-HOA living, USDA-eligible financing, and room for livestock still define the lifestyle.
Alvarado sellers are holding the line on list-to-sale ratio but paying for it in closing-table credits. Roughly three in four closings this quarter carried seller concessions averaging about $10,000, well above Johnson County's share of closer to two in three, even as sellers recovered about 97 cents on the dollar, slightly ahead of the county. Price per square foot near $166 still trails the county's $174, and values sit a couple of percent below year-ago levels. Median time to close slipped to about 50 days from 45 last month. Based on MLS data for October 2026 closings in Alvarado, buyers are extracting value through credits rather than outright price cuts.
Supply is building faster than contracts can absorb it in Alvarado. Active inventory climbed to roughly 300 homes, up about ten percent from last month, while pending contracts stayed stuck near ten and new listings edged up to about 178 over the quarter. Months of supply stretched to roughly nine, back at the spring level and above Johnson County's near-eight reading. With days on market drifting toward 50, the pipeline points to a slower near-term rhythm, with buyer-favorable conditions extending rather than easing.
Market Updates
Alvarado sellers are holding the line on list-to-sale ratio but paying for it in closing-table credits. Roughly three in four closings this quarter carried seller concessions averaging about $10,000, well above Johnson County's share of closer to two in three, even as sellers recovered about 97 cents on the dollar, slightly ahead of the county. Price per square foot near $166 still trails the county's $174, and values sit a couple of percent below year-ago levels. Median time to close slipped to about 50 days from 45 last month. Based on MLS data for October 2026 closings in Alvarado, buyers are extracting value through credits rather than outright price cuts.
Supply is building faster than contracts can absorb it in Alvarado. Active inventory climbed to roughly 300 homes, up about ten percent from last month, while pending contracts stayed stuck near ten and new listings edged up to about 178 over the quarter. Months of supply stretched to roughly nine, back at the spring level and above Johnson County's near-eight reading. With days on market drifting toward 50, the pipeline points to a slower near-term rhythm, with buyer-favorable conditions extending rather than easing.
For the third straight quarter, closings in Alvarado have held above the 100-sale mark in the trailing three months, with the median time to close down to 45 days — a modest pickup in pace from the high-40s pattern earlier in the year. Price per square foot ticked up to $165 from the prior quarter's reading, though it remains a few dollars below the Johnson County median, and values are still running below year-ago levels, based on MLS data for September 2026 closings in Alvarado. Sellers received roughly 97 cents on the dollar at closing, an improvement from the mid-90s reported in recent months, even as concession activity held near seven in ten transactions and average givebacks rose past $11,000.
Alvarado's forward-looking pipeline points to a widening gap between supply and contract activity. Pending contracts thinned to just 9 homes in the trailing quarter, down roughly a quarter from last month's already-slim count, while new listings picked up to 172 added homes and active inventory edged up to 270. Months of supply held near eight, essentially in line with Johnson County's pace. The combination — fewer contracts, more listings entering the market — suggests the recent pickup in closing speed has not yet translated into a deeper contract pipeline.
Concession activity in Alvarado climbed to nearly seven in ten closings this quarter, up from roughly six in ten in July and the highest share in the trailing twelve-month window, even as the average giveback held close to $10,000. Sellers received about 96 cents on the dollar at closing — essentially unchanged from last month — while well over half of the market's 105 closings settled below list price. Price per square foot slipped slightly to $162, continuing a run below the Johnson County median, with values still running roughly six percent under year-ago levels. Based on MLS data for August 2026 closings in Alvarado, sellers appear to be trading price certainty for volume rather than holding firm at asking.
Pending contracts in Alvarado fell to just 12 homes in the trailing quarter, less than half July's already-thin count, even as active inventory held near 256 listings and new listings slowed to 156 added homes. Months of supply eased to about seven, still solidly favoring buyers relative to Johnson County's near eight-month reading. The shrinking contract pipeline against a barely-moving inventory base suggests sellers accepting deeper concessions are not yet being rewarded with faster absorption.
Closings accelerated modestly in Alvarado this quarter, with median days on market easing to 48 — a touch quicker than the reading recorded in the spring — while more than 100 sales closed in the trailing three months, among the busiest stretches in the trailing twelve-month window. Price per square foot held close to $164, essentially unchanged and still trailing the Johnson County median. Concession activity eased back after climbing to a twelve-month high in June, with roughly six in ten closings now including seller givebacks near $9,500. Sellers received about 96 cents on the dollar at closing, and well over half of transactions settled below list price, based on MLS data for July 2026 closings in Alvarado.
The forward-looking data reinforces the shift in tempo. Pending contracts in Alvarado fell sharply to just 27 homes in the trailing quarter — down from the count reported in June — even as active inventory ticked up to 267 listings and new listings added roughly 174 homes to the pipeline, keeping the supply gap wide. Months of supply crept up to nearly eight, still firmly in buyer-favorable territory. The thinning pending count suggests contract activity has not kept pace with the faster closing rhythm showing up in completed sales.
Alvarado's price per square foot slipped to roughly $165 in the latest quarter, trailing the full-year average by about five percent and landing below Johnson County's benchmark of $172. Based on MLS data for June 2026 closings in Alvarado, two-thirds of completed transactions included seller concessions — the highest concession rate in the trailing twelve-month window — with average givebacks running close to $9,000 per deal. Sellers received roughly 96 cents on the dollar at closing, and more than half of homes sold below asking. Values remain nearly ten percent below year-ago levels, extending a repricing trend that has persisted across multiple consecutive quarters.
Supply conditions in Alvarado continue to favor buyers heading into summer. Active listings have held near 243 homes while the pending count sits at just 59 contracts — a ratio of roughly one pending transaction for every four available listings. Months of supply at about seven has retreated from the nine-month level reported earlier in the year, but it remains well above the threshold that would indicate meaningful seller leverage. New listing activity added roughly 158 homes to the pipeline over the trailing three months, keeping replenishment broadly in line with absorption.
Price per square foot in Alvarado settled near $168 in recent closings — a step down from the full-year average of $175 — with sellers broadly giving back roughly three cents on the dollar at closing. Based on MLS data for May 2026 closings in Alvarado, nearly two-thirds of transactions included seller concessions averaging just over $10,000. More than half of homes closed below list price, and values are running more than 11 percent below where they stood a year ago. The pattern reflects a pricing reset that has been building throughout the trailing twelve-month window.
With nine months of supply currently on the market, Alvarado carries more inventory relative to absorption than a balanced market would typically reflect. The pending count of 65 homes represents roughly one contract for every four active listings, a ratio that has not tightened appreciably despite the recent DOM reading of 50 days being notably faster than the Johnson County average. New listing activity has added approximately 161 homes to the pipeline over the trailing three months, sustaining available supply at current levels.
Zip Codes in Alvarado
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Market data last updated Oct 1, 2026, 6:00 AM CDT · Editorial updated Oct 9, 2026, 11:28 PM CDT
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