Justin Home Values

While median sale prices in Justin, TX and Denton County landed within a percent of each other this quarter, near $442K, the two markets diverged sharply everywhere else in the closed-sale data. Based on MLS data for September 2026 closings in Justin, TX, homes here traded near $184 a square foot, about nine percent under the county's $202 benchmark, and took roughly 61 days to sell -- nearly double the county's 35-day pace, snapping a run of quicker closings recorded through August. Concessions ran hotter too, touching close to three in four Justin sales versus about six in ten countywide, even as the average concession eased toward $10,900.

Justin's pipeline echoes the same divergence traced in closed sales. Supply near seven months sits roughly a month above Denton County's level, one of the wider supply gaps among county submarkets tracked this quarter. New listings arrived at a pace similar to last quarter -- 230 in all -- while pending contracts totaled just over a dozen, a conversion rate far thinner than the county's broader absorption. Active inventory held flat near 355 homes for a second straight period, pointing to a persistently slower-moving pipeline rather than a temporary lull.

The negotiation gap between what sellers ask and what they collect in Justin, TX narrowed slightly this quarter, based on MLS data for August 2026 closings. Concessions still touched roughly seven in ten transactions, but that share pulled back from three in four a month earlier -- even as the average concession itself grew to just over $12,500, suggesting sellers are trading frequency for size when they do give ground. Price per square foot held near $186, a few dollars above July's reading and still trailing Denton County's $204 benchmark. The typical closing took 55 days, a fourth consecutive month of faster closings, on a median transaction near $447K -- about 3 percent above July's level.

Even as active inventory in Justin, TX held flat near 340 homes, pending contracts cratered to roughly a dozen this quarter -- down sharply from the three dozen recorded in July. New listings eased only modestly to 227, keeping months of supply anchored near six and a half, comfortably above Denton County's six-month benchmark. That combination complicates any read of sellers regaining ground: the pipeline shows little sign of tightening enough to support a pullback in concessions.

A sample of 160 closings gives Justin, TX real weight this quarter, showing a market still settling into a slower rhythm: the median close took 72 days, down from 80 the month prior but still past the 61-day trailing-year mark and more than double Denton County's 31-day pace. Price per square foot held near $183, a few dollars off the county's $203 benchmark, on a median transaction just above $432K. Sellers kept conceding ground -- three in four transactions included concessions averaging just over $12,000, and the typical seller collected about 95 cents of every listed dollar. Based on MLS data for July 2026 closings in Justin, TX, none of these figures moved sharply on their own.

Pending contracts in Justin, TX fell to roughly three dozen this quarter, even as 243 new listings kept arriving at a pace close to last month's. That gap -- far thinner than the roughly one-in-three conversion rate recorded a month earlier -- is the sharper signal here than the level of active inventory, which ticked up only modestly to 344 homes. With months of supply holding near six and a half, the widening distance between new listings and signed contracts suggests absorption is losing ground heading into late summer, not gaining it.